US STOCK MARKET EXPENSIVE | The US stock market has gone up massively since the last time we had JayNemesis in the show. In this video, we continue our discussion on Bitcoin, Ethereum, the cryptocurrency market and we will end it with the US stock market.
Does the US stock market have room to grow or is it too expensive already?
The stock market as a whole might look expensive, but there is value to be found in the majority of names in the S&P 500.
The index, in which stocks with bigger market capitalizations have more weight than smaller ones, is trading at 21.4 times the aggregate forecast earnings per share of the companies included. That is 43% above the long-term average of 15 times.
The S&P 500 Index keeps delivering all-time highs. Is this rise justified by the fundamentals?
The major U.S. equity indices continue their inexorable rise. The S&P 500 is up more than 80% from its March 2020 lows. Over the last 10 years, the annualized performance (including dividends) is over 14%.
These figures call for some caution when it comes to investment planning in the coming months. What can we say about market fundamentals and key risks? Let us take a closer look at the factors that raise many questions and could create volatility in the second half of the year.
Valuation levels
The sharp rise in equity prices since the March 2020 lows has pushed valuations to their highest levels in 20 years (see chart below), causing many observers to fear a repeat of the “bear market” we witnessed at the beginning of the century.
The strong rise in the S&P 500 index over the past 12 months is partly explained by the upward revision of earnings growth expectations. And that earnings recovery is indeed well underway, with a 49% increase in the first quarter of this year. Nevertheless, stock prices have risen much faster than underlying earnings so far, which explains this rise in the price/earnings ratio.
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VERY IMPORTANT
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