PHILIPPINE ECONOMY | We have Wilson Flores back in the show to talk about the opportunities in the Philippine economy! Where are we now as an economy and where are things headed?
Philippines Economic Outlook
August 24, 2021
The economy recorded a sky-high year-on-year growth rate in Q2 thanks to soaring private consumption, fixed investment and exports, although public spending dropped as the government adopted a tighter fiscal stance. However, the increase in GDP was because of a low base effect, and the economy contracted in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms. Closer examination shows that services output was the main reason for the decline, which points to the likely driver: soaring cases and the strengthening of restrictions. Moving into Q3, restrictions were further tightened in August. Moreover, logistical challenges and public resistance to vaccines—especially Chinese shots—threaten to derail the vaccination program, boding ill for growth prospects ahead.
GDP is set to move closer to pre-pandemic levels this year, boosted by higher exports and remittances. Nonetheless, the weak vaccination campaign and the reintroduction of restrictions mean the recovery will be more tepid than anticipated. Ongoing slow vaccination progress is the key risk, while uncertainty in the run-up to next year’s elections further clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 4.7% in 2021, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2022, they forecast economic growth of 7.0%.
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